In progress

Summary and worked examples to follow.

The Four-Square Prioritized Differential (FSPD) is a method for prioritizing a differential diagnosis along two axes — likelihood and degree of harm if not recognized — so that “must not miss” diagnoses are handled explicitly and early, and not buried in a long list. The point of the FSPD is to make explicit what is probable rather than what is possible.

The degree of overlap between a working diagnosis (in the form of a problem representation) and the classic presentation of a disease: this defines probability of the patient at hand having this diagnosis. Draw a 2 x 2 square and label the boxes as Type I, Ib, II, and III:

LikelyUnlikely
Highest probabilityIIb
Lower probabilityIIIII

Never forget to consider 1b diagnoses: imminent threats to life if not recognized or acted upon within minutes to hours.

Related: Diagnostic schemas.